It is worse than I originally thought. By my number crunching (from the latest Madison Metro Operating Statistics For Periods Ending 8/31/2008 &8/31/2009–opens in PDF) Madison Metro lost more than 4.5% of its ridership in August 2009 compared to the same period in ’08. That’s ugly. It is a lot worse than prior months whose numbers were already abysmally depressed.

And it will only get worse. The same bus fare models bus advocates used to predict the current losses also show a steepening dropoff over time (imagine a downward pointing hockey stick on a graph). Here’s what happens: as the higher fares start to inflict their pain, people start seeking out alternatives: walking, carpooling, biking (the only mode to actually increase during this time period), or just eliminating trips altogether. That often takes a few months to work out, but people will work it out, and they will get themselves out of the jam inflicted upon them by this car loving mayor. That is unfortunate for our beloved bus system, but there you have it.

Financially, the numbers are abysmal. It looks like Metro’s revenues have crashed, missing the budget by $799,815. The bulk of that–$630,631–was the result of depressed ridership, thanks to the fare jacking.

Heckuva job, Mayor Pave!

I’m just truly sorry that the bus system and bus riders end up being collateral damage in his jihad against cleaner modes of transportation.